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December 2018

Value Wars?


  • Investors see a lot to like about restaurant stocks as indicated by a steady climb in public market valuations according to data from Hedgeye. 
  • While this maybe partially attributable to a steady stream of private equity buyouts over the last couple of years with valuations as high as 19x, certainly public stock investors don't believe that all remaining stocks will receive such rich bids?

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November 2018

Development Headwinds


  • Rising building costs and declining new build AUVs continue to pressure sales to investment ratios and new unit development for the $1B+ chains (+2.9% projected 2018 gross unit growth would represent the slowest rate in at least 16 years).

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October 2018

RR's 2018 Remodeling Report Recap


  • A large number of new remodel programs were introduced in 2018 and, after putting previous reimages on hold in anticipation of these new programs, the average system % at the current image has fallen to a 5-year low. This suggests that the tailwind provided by remodeling sales bumps is also at a 5-year low

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September 2018

Restaurants in C-Store Crosshairs


  • C-stores are focused on regaining their share of total food dollars which has declined -28% since 2002. While a big surge in restaurant industry discounting was sufficient to slow the more recent advance in c-store food sales, $30B in annual food sales reveals a solid c-store positioning among those restaurant consumers that may be more interested in an opportunity to save time with one stop shopping for gas, groceries & food than chowing on gourmet fare. These consumers may also appreciate the ability to mix-and-match prepared food with grocery options (including a plethora of bottled drinks & snacks).

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August 2018

Recap of 2Q18 Investor Calls



Source: Quarterly Concept & Comp Update Reports (click for outlines)

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