RRupdates

Tuesday
Jul232019

June 2019

Comp Prospects Looking Up

 

  • RR's Intent to Eat Out Index posted its 2nd highest result since Oct 2018
  • The 45-64 year old cohort is improving and this is consistent with a lower average FSR promotional price point.
  • Conversely, the 18-24 year old cohort continues to be pressured by a relatively high average QSR deal price (50%+ plan to eat out less).

 

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Monday
Jun242019

May 2019

TraffiCast 

Forward Looking Consumer Survey 

1,500 respondents

 

18 - 24 Year Olds Taking Summer Off

 

  • RR's Intent to Eat Out Index declined slightly this month, with a sharp increase among 18 - 24 year olds who intend to eat out a "lot less" (with school letting out). Also, we see that women indicated a significant increase in their intention to eat out "a lot less" which contrasts with a significant increase in expectations by men to eat out "a lot more". 
  • While the overall promotional mix of QSR & FSR price point offers remain relatively unchanged, the average price point increased for both segments which could help explain this month's Intent to Eat Out Index decline. For now, the industry seems content to focus more on innovation with new products representing a significant 19% mix for QSR and 30% for FSR.

 

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Thursday
May232019

April 2019

TraffiCast 

Forward Looking Consumer Survey 

1,500 respondents

 

Less Value = Less Traffic Prospects 

 

  • RR's Intent to Eat Out Index finally rebounded after steadily declining for the previous 2 months. Stabilized results reflect the benefit of more consumers indicating their intent to eat out about the same as last month - an improvement from recent declining trends.
  • This primarily reflects a return to QSR value promotions with an increase in $1 & $2 deals to go with a sharp sequential m/m ramp-up of the QSR price point promotional mix as a % of total promotions. 
  • Conversely, FSR has pivoted away from price point value promotions, rather emphasizing premium promotions. We will see how this works out for FSR going forward sales - it may be premature for FSR to pivot away from value.
  • The interesting point is how often we find QSR and FSR value promotional mix moving in opposite directions as these segments react to one another. If QSR & FSR players were measuring potential consumer spending strength the same way, we would expect parallel changes in promotional mixes. 

 

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Friday
Apr262019

March 2019

TraffiCast 
 

Forward Looking Consumer Survey 

1,500 respondents

 

Less Value = Less Traffic Prospects 

 

  • RR's Intent to Eat Out Index continues to trend down and now represents a 6 month low. This parallels a declining use of price point promotions for both QSR and FSR.
  • The QSR value mix is the lowest since 7/18 with fewer deals under $5 but with increasing use of discounted or free delivery service deals.
  • While FSR total value promotions continue to increase, the composition of lower price point deals are diminishing as the casual chains ramp-up promotions during off-peak times (1/2 priced apps & early week specials) and to-go.

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Thursday
Mar282019

February 2019

TraffiCast 
 

Forward Looking Consumer Survey 

1,500 respondents

 

Less Value = Less Traffic Prospects 

 

  • RR Intent to Eat Out Index is at its lowest level since we began conducting this survey 6 months ago. 
  • This parallels that QSR value deals as a % of total promotions is at the lowest level in 7 months as the major chains seek to wean consumers off of deals.
  • Similarly, we see a sharp rise from the casual chains in non-price point value deals (promoting things like digital, delivery & kids eat free).
  • Lastly, the IRS reports a 27% decline in the number of refunds through 2/15/19 and an average refund decline of 17% which reflects that consumers under withheld during 2018. This factor may also contribute to a lower intent to eat out.  

 

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