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Thursday
May232019

April 2019

TraffiCast 

Forward Looking Consumer Survey 

1,500 respondents

 

Less Value = Less Traffic Prospects 

 

  • RR's Intent to Eat Out Index finally rebounded after steadily declining for the previous 2 months. Stabilized results reflect the benefit of more consumers indicating their intent to eat out about the same as last month - an improvement from recent declining trends.
  • This primarily reflects a return to QSR value promotions with an increase in $1 & $2 deals to go with a sharp sequential m/m ramp-up of the QSR price point promotional mix as a % of total promotions. 
  • Conversely, FSR has pivoted away from price point value promotions, rather emphasizing premium promotions. We will see how this works out for FSR going forward sales - it may be premature for FSR to pivot away from value.
  • The interesting point is how often we find QSR and FSR value promotional mix moving in opposite directions as these segments react to one another. If QSR & FSR players were measuring potential consumer spending strength the same way, we would expect parallel changes in promotional mixes. 

 

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Friday
Apr262019

March 2019

TraffiCast 
 

Forward Looking Consumer Survey 

1,500 respondents

 

Less Value = Less Traffic Prospects 

 

  • RR's Intent to Eat Out Index continues to trend down and now represents a 6 month low. This parallels a declining use of price point promotions for both QSR and FSR.
  • The QSR value mix is the lowest since 7/18 with fewer deals under $5 but with increasing use of discounted or free delivery service deals.
  • While FSR total value promotions continue to increase, the composition of lower price point deals are diminishing as the casual chains ramp-up promotions during off-peak times (1/2 priced apps & early week specials) and to-go.

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Thursday
Mar282019

February 2019

TraffiCast 
 

Forward Looking Consumer Survey 

1,500 respondents

 

Less Value = Less Traffic Prospects 

 

  • RR Intent to Eat Out Index is at its lowest level since we began conducting this survey 6 months ago. 
  • This parallels that QSR value deals as a % of total promotions is at the lowest level in 7 months as the major chains seek to wean consumers off of deals.
  • Similarly, we see a sharp rise from the casual chains in non-price point value deals (promoting things like digital, delivery & kids eat free).
  • Lastly, the IRS reports a 27% decline in the number of refunds through 2/15/19 and an average refund decline of 17% which reflects that consumers under withheld during 2018. This factor may also contribute to a lower intent to eat out.  

 

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Tuesday
Feb262019

January 2019

Moderating Responses 

 

  • RR Intent to Eat Out Index is holding steady based upon a moderation of responses, with a sharp reduction in plans to eat-out "a lot more" mostly offset by an increase in plans to eat-out "about the same" with a decrease in plans to eat-out less. 

 

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Monday
Jan282019

December 2018

Higher Price Point Deals More Appealing to 25+ Crowd 

 

  • RR Intent to Eat Out Index has rebounded slightly in December, reflecting a surge in those planning a "lot more" visits for the coming month among those aged 25+. 

 

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